20200110

SBC 2019 results AND analyzing multi-decade SBCs

The following 2019 counts have been received (and * indicates Entered into our one central database):
  1. Hartford  from J.Kaplan.*
  2. Woodbury-Roxbury  from R.Naylor.*
  3. New Milford-Pawling  from A.Dimmitt.*
  4. New Haven  from S.Mayo.*
  5. Greenwich-Stamford  from T.Burke.*
  6. Barkhamsted  from D.Rosgen and J.Marshall.*
  7. Litchfield Hills  from D.Tripp.*
  8. Storrs  from S.Morytko.*
All 8 count areas for 2019 have been entered into our new consolidated database online.
Here is a summary of these eight SBC counts for 2019:




A representation of part of our database is shown here, if you click on this link:
#SBC data for Summer Bird Counts for one year: 2019 - Google Sheets
And here is what part of it looks like:




And here is an extracted report for the last ten (eleven) years, for totals across all 8 SBC areas :



Click on this image to expand it, then press Esc key to return, and then click on this link....

Click on this link to view the entire tabular report:
**SBC report for all 8 Summer Bird Counts areas 2009-2019 - Google Sheets

Note that the species lists and sequences have been changing across the eight SBC areas, so this new database brings them all back to one species list, with the sequence being synchronized with official checklists (the "final" sequence is being worked on currently).




THE REST OF THIS POST IS A DRAFT UNDER-CONSTRUCTION:

If we look at these eleven year numbers for all CT SBCs (for 2009-2019) it appears that only three bird species are clearly increasing and five declining:

INCREASING:
Black Vulture.
Pileated Woodpecker.
Common Raven.

DECREASING:
Black-crowned Night Heron.
Common Tern.
Monk Parakeet.
Northern Mockingbird.
Purple Finch.



Black-crowned Night Heron  (2009-2019)  Totals for 8 CT SBCs



But if we look at the longer study of 34 years of the Greenwich-Stamford SBC, done in 2010, it is clear that additional species are increasing or decreasing over that longer time horizon.
GIVE REFERENCE/LINK TO THAT PAPER HERE.


In the case of this species, Black-crowned Night Heron, looking back to 1976 (just within the Greenwich-Stamford SBC) gives a lot more perspective on the question, "How is the population of this species changing  (over 44 years) ?"  Click on this image to expand it, and then press ESC key to return here...



In other words, the longer multi-decade bird counts seem to make the population trends much more discernible, if there is a pattern, or not.  Therefore we are going to try to re-construct some of the longer multi-decade bird count data series (and fill-in some gaps), such as the following multi-decade counts (this chart is a draft, under construction, looking for names of some missing observers, captains and compilers -- different people compiled these for different years, although Tom Burke compiled the G/S SBC non-stop since 1976 -- Congratulations Tom!):


SBC Summer Bird Counts are shown in GREEN, above.  Click on image above to enlarge it. Press ESC key to return here.



We are currently trying to find or  re-construct some of these longer time series, before they are lost to the dust bins of history.  More to come over the next several months, and it will be available here.

Here is a preview of the analysis we are doing now, using 1976-2019 (44 years) data from the Greenwich-Stamford SBC, thanks largely to Tom Burke, Gary Palmer, Joe Zeranski, et al....
In each of these cases (the five species charted below) if you just look at the last eleven years (2009-2019) it appears the following five species are not changing that much. But if you look back a lot farther you can see clear long-term trends: Brown Thrasher decreasing, and the other four species increasing.

Click on each image to enlarge it, and then press ESC key to return here...


Brown Thrasher:    from 1976...



Warbling Vireo:    from 1976...



Red-bellied Woodpecker:    from 1976...



Pine Warbler:    from 1976...


Raven:    from 1976...



Clearly a ten or eleven year look-back is not enough time to see some of the fundamental and profound population trends for some bird species.  Therefore we are now doing a much longer look-back,
1)  starting with the Greenwich-Stamford SBC, with its 44 years (1976-2019) of June bird counts in its SBC area,
2)  and simultaneously pulling together the Captree NY SBC data files (1972-2019), and trying to fill a few gaps there. 

The results of that archaeological detective work will be available here, later this year.  If you have any data or clues you would like to contribute, please contact me at robben99@gmail.com     Thank you!